Every fall, 1099 workers hit the same question on the Marketplace application: what will you earn next year? When your income changes with every pay period, that is a hard question. It also matters more than it used to.
This post explains why, and how to make an estimate you can stand behind.
Why your estimate matters more now
Marketplace savings are based on the income you expect for the year you want coverage, according to HealthCare.gov. If your guess turns out to be off, you can end up paying money back when you file your federal tax return.
What changed is how much you can end up paying back. According to the IRS, the limits on repaying excess advance premium tax credits were removed for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025. That means 2026 is the first year with no cap. If you get more advance help than you qualify for, you owe the difference, however large it is.
The enhanced credits that were in place from 2021 through 2025 also expired, so the income limit is back. Households above roughly four times the federal poverty level generally don’t qualify for a premium tax credit at all. Regular premium tax credits are still available below that line.
So a guess that is too low can mean help you don’t qualify for, and a bill later.
What counts as income
For self employed people, HealthCare.gov says to count the income you expect from your business after expenses. That is your profit, not the total you bill or the total the apps pay out.
Your tax professional may call this net profit. Other items can also count toward your household income, such as a spouse’s pay or other earnings, so include everyone on your tax return.
How to build the estimate
You don’t need to be perfect. You need a careful, honest number. Here is one way to get there:
- Start with last year’s tax return. Look at your net profit, not your gross.
- Look at this year so far. Add up what you’ve earned and spent since January, then think about how the rest of the year will go.
- Adjust for what’s changing. More hours, a new client, a slow season, a new car, a new platform. Write it down so you remember your reasoning.
- Count real expenses only. Mileage, supplies, software, phone and other business costs lower your profit. Keep records so the numbers hold up.
- Think about a range. If your best case and worst case are far apart, you may want to lean toward the middle or the higher side, since guessing too low is the riskier mistake now.
If your income changes during the year
Your application is not locked in. HealthCare.gov says that once you have coverage, you should report income changes as soon as possible. If you don’t, you could miss out on savings or owe money back at tax time.
A simple habit helps: check your numbers every quarter. If you land a big contract, or you are earning well above your estimate, update your application. If you are earning less, update that too, so you get the help you qualify for.
One note: changing your income estimate is not the same as a special enrollment period. Switching plans outside open enrollment still generally requires a qualifying event, such as losing other coverage or moving.
What to do before open enrollment
- Pull last year’s return and this year’s income and expenses into one place.
- Write down your estimate and how you got it.
- Check your state’s open enrollment dates at HealthCare.gov or your state exchange. Dates vary, and the deadline for coverage that starts January 1 comes before the final day.
- Compare plans, not just premiums. Your deductible and copays matter too.
- Talk to a tax professional if your income is complicated.
The bottom line
You can’t know next year’s income for sure. What you can do is make a careful estimate, write down how you got it, and check it during the year. If you want a second set of eyes, Self Covered Insurance can set you up with a free call with a licensed agent who can go through it with you.
Rules current as of October 2026 and may change. Self Covered Insurance is a referral service. We are not an insurance company and are not part of the government. This isn’t tax advice. Check with a tax professional about your situation.
